The table they call “the comparison that says it all”, with the six rows this site audits one by one.
We took the table they call "the comparison that says it all" and checked every row. Three of the six hold up without reservation — and we say so plainly. The other three depend on context that was left out.
Both figures match the IPCA. What the table does not say is that the first window contains the pandemic, the logistics collapse and the war in Ukraine, and ends at the all-time record of the global food index. Beyond that, today's price is the result of both windows combined: food rose in each of them.
It compares the series peak (14.9% in Q1 2021, the height of lockdowns) with the current value. The previous government inherited 12.7% and handed over 7.9%; the current one inherited 7.9% and reached 5.4%. The 5.4% is real and is the lowest on record — it is the 14.9% peak that is nobody's bottom line.
Real income did fall until 2021 and recovered afterwards — it is now at its highest on record (R$ 3,652 in the quarter to Jan 2026). But the fall coincides with the destruction of jobs during the pandemic, and the rise starts from a depressed base. Part of the recovery is ground regained, not new ground.
This checks out. The income tax brackets were not adjusted between 2019 and 2022, and Law 15,270/2025 raised the exemption to those earning up to R$ 5,000, in force since January 2026, benefiting roughly 15 million people. An honest caveat: the bracket freeze began in 2015, before the previous government.
The figures are correct. The comparison is nominal, but in this case the real gain exists too: Law 14,663/2023 restored the valorisation policy (inflation plus GDP growth from two years earlier), and the 2026 adjustment delivered a gain above inflation.
This is the same valorisation policy measured as cumulative real gain. A difference of method, not of external context: here the comparison measures a policy choice, which is exactly what a comparison between governments ought to measure.
The campaign material does not fabricate numbers — it selects the yardstick. Where the comparison measures a policy choice (income tax, minimum wage), it is legitimate and we confirm it. Where it measures a global cycle (food, unemployment, income), attributing the result to the government is the error.
Sources: IBGE (IPCA Table 7060, PNAD Contínua); Law 15,270/2025 (income tax exemption up to R$ 5,000, in force Jan 2026); Law 14,663/2023 (minimum wage valorisation policy); Federal Senate and Ministry of Finance.
A bent yardstick travels fast because it is simple. Context travels slowly because it needs explaining. If this check helped you understand the number, it will help someone else too.
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