This site checks, number by number, the campaign material on cost of living published at mercadodamentira.com.br ↗.
The conclusion, after auditing every section: they did not invent any data. They did something harder to spot — they picked a yardstick that starts and ends at exactly the right points to produce the desired conclusion. Here we put back what was cut, using the same official sources.
The original site compares Jan 2019–Jul 2022 against Jan 2023–Jul 2026. It looks symmetrical: three and a half years on each side. But look at what falls inside each window — using a global index that no Brazilian president controls.
* 2026: August value (133.3), the highest since late 2022. All-time monthly peak of the series: 159.7 points in March 2022.
Calendar symmetry is presented as if it were symmetry of conditions. Same number of months, same source, same index — so whatever is left over must be the merit or the fault of the government.
The "Bolsonaro" window starts at 95 points and ends exactly at the all-time peak of the global food index: the pandemic, the logistics collapse and the war in Ukraine are all inside it.
The "Lula" window starts right after that peak and rides the normalisation of global supply chains. Much of the difference was already settled before any decision taken in Brasília.
The numbers are correct. What does not hold is the attribution of cause: the same rise-and-fall pattern shows up worldwide, including in countries whose governments never changed.
Sources: FAO — Food Price Index (monthly and annual series, 2014-2016=100); FAO release of March 2022 on the 159.7-point record; FAO release of September 2026.
The site opens with its strongest number: 13.2% annual food inflation in the earlier window against 3.0% a year in the current one. "Four times more expensive." The IPCA figure is correct. The question it does not answer is: four times more expensive because of whom?
Food consumed at home, IPCA/IBGE Table 7060, three and a half years of each government. 54.24% against 13.66% cumulative.
1. Pandemic and logistics collapse (2020-2021). Shipping costs multiplied, supply chains broke and pent-up demand pushed food prices up worldwide.
2. War in Ukraine (Feb 2022). Russia and Ukraine accounted for about 27% of world wheat exports and more than half of sunflower oil. The FAO global index hit its all-time record in March 2022.
3. Fertilisers. Brazil imports most of what it uses, and Russia and Belarus are central suppliers. Sanctions made the input more expensive — and the input feeds into the price of the following harvest.
Misleading by omission of cause. The gap between the two windows is largely the gap between standing on the climb and standing on the descent of a global commodity cycle. And since the FAO index started rising again in 2026, the very metric used today as proof of competence could become proof of incompetence within months — with nothing having changed in Brasília.
Sources: IBGE/IPCA (Table 7060, food consumed at home); FAO — Food Price Index; FAO/UN releases of March 2022 and September 2026.
We took the 112 items from the original site's own table, with their figures, without changing a comma. And we did the one calculation that was missing: chaining the two windows to find where the price stands today relative to January 2019.
| Item | 2019-2022 window | 2023-2026 window | Price today vs. Jan 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mango (Manga) | +105.6% | +104.6% | +320.7% |
| Cabbage (Repolho) | +101.4% | +57.2% | +216.6% |
| Watermelon (Melancia) | +117.1% | +29.7% | +181.6% |
| UHT milk (Leite longa vida) | +130.5% | +19.4% | +175.2% |
| Black-eyed pea (Feijão macáçar (fradinho)) | +149.0% | +9.9% | +173.7% |
| Carioca bean (Feijão carioca (rajado)) | +130.9% | +12.9% | +160.7% |
| Lettuce (Alface) | +85.1% | +40.1% | +159.3% |
| Ground coffee (Café moído) | +72.7% | +48.7% | +156.8% |
| Bell pepper (Pimentão) | +113.7% | +19.8% | +156.0% |
| Soybean oil (Óleo de soja) | +174.3% | −14.2% | +135.3% |
| Papaya (Mamão) | +117.5% | +6.2% | +131.0% |
| Cassava (Mandioca (aipim)) | +90.9% | +12.6% | +115.0% |
| Collard greens (Couve) | +51.1% | +38.7% | +109.6% |
| Broccoli (Brócolis) | +53.4% | +35.8% | +108.3% |
| Meat (Carnes) | +73.7% | +17.0% | +103.2% |
| Curimatã (river fish) (curimatã) | +67.0% | +21.2% | +102.4% |
| Plantain (Banana-da-terra) | +60.1% | +25.9% | +101.6% |
| Parsley and chives (Cheiro-verde) | +42.4% | +41.3% | +101.2% |
| Mulatinho bean (Feijão mulatinho) | +73.4% | +12.4% | +94.9% |
| Potato (Batata-inglesa) | +64.0% | +15.2% | +88.9% |
| Petrol (Gasolina) | +39.9% | +31.4% | +83.8% |
| Fuel (Combustível) | +44.6% | +26.9% | +83.5% |
| Silver banana (Banana prata) | +67.4% | +8.5% | +81.6% |
| Garlic (Alho) | +62.0% | +11.2% | +80.1% |
| Ice cream (Sorvete) | +45.4% | +23.6% | +79.7% |
| Dried salted beef (Carne-seca e de sol) | +48.6% | +20.1% | +78.5% |
| Chicken pieces (Frango em pedaços) | +76.5% | +0.9% | +78.1% |
| Water banana (Banana d'água) | +67.5% | +5.4% | +76.5% |
| Piped gas (Gás encanado) | +65.8% | +5.8% | +75.4% |
| Chicken eggs (Ovo de galinha) | +63.3% | +5.7% | +72.6% |
| Refined sugar (Açúcar refinado) | +83.0% | −6.0% | +72.0% |
| Bottled cooking gas (Gás de botijão) | +62.3% | +5.1% | +70.6% |
| Yoghurt and dairy drinks (Iogurte e bebidas lácteas) | +34.1% | +26.3% | +69.4% |
| Coconut milk (Leite de coco) | +36.2% | +22.7% | +67.1% |
| Pork (Carne de porco) | +51.8% | +8.1% | +64.1% |
| Canned sardines (Sardinha em conserva) | +46.5% | +11.9% | +63.9% |
| Raw sugar (Açúcar cristal) | +86.2% | −12.1% | +63.7% |
| Liver (Fígado) | +67.0% | −2.0% | +63.7% |
| Instant coffee (Café solúvel) | +32.9% | +23.2% | +63.7% |
| Whole chicken (Frango inteiro) | +62.7% | +0.4% | +63.4% |
| Margarine (Margarina) | +59.1% | +2.2% | +62.6% |
| Pickled cucumber (Pepino em conserva) | +45.5% | +11.7% | +62.5% |
| Canned sweetcorn (Milho-verde em conserva) | +65.6% | −2.2% | +62.0% |
| Canned sausage (Salsicha em conserva) | +55.1% | +3.9% | +61.1% |
| Cheese (Queijo) | +44.7% | +10.0% | +59.2% |
| Cheese bread (Pão de queijo) | +30.7% | +20.7% | +57.8% |
| Pear (Pera) | +44.7% | +6.8% | +54.5% |
| Mayonnaise (Maionese) | +41.0% | +9.5% | +54.4% |
| Grapes (Uva) | +27.2% | +21.1% | +54.0% |
| Sliced bread (Pão de forma) | +37.0% | +12.2% | +53.7% |
| Bread roll (Pão francês) | +30.8% | +17.1% | +53.2% |
| Sweet bread (Pão doce) | +25.7% | +21.0% | +52.1% |
| Mackerel (cavala) | +52.6% | −0.9% | +51.2% |
| Powdered milk (Leite em pó) | +38.4% | +8.3% | +49.9% |
| Olive oil (Azeite de oliva) | +22.3% | +22.3% | +49.6% |
| Cement (Cimento) | +29.2% | +14.8% | +48.3% |
| Tyre (Pneu) | +65.1% | −10.4% | +47.9% |
| Detergent (Detergente) | +36.5% | +8.2% | +47.7% |
| Rice (Arroz) | +50.5% | −1.9% | +47.6% |
| Cake (Bolo) | +24.5% | +17.1% | +45.8% |
| Biscuits (Biscoito) | +35.0% | +7.8% | +45.5% |
| Wheat flour (Farinha de trigo) | +72.2% | −16.0% | +44.6% |
| Salt (Sal) | +30.4% | +9.3% | +42.5% |
| New car (Automóvel novo) | +29.0% | +9.9% | +41.8% |
| Onion (Cebola) | +72.1% | −17.7% | +41.6% |
| Apple (Maçã) | +42.2% | −0.9% | +40.9% |
| Pork sausage (Linguiça) | +40.6% | −0.7% | +39.6% |
| Black beans (Feijão preto) | +45.9% | −4.5% | +39.3% |
| Air conditioner (Ar-condicionado) | +29.3% | +7.5% | +39.0% |
| Mattress (Colchão) | +35.3% | +1.3% | +37.1% |
| Butter (Manteiga) | +33.7% | +2.2% | +36.6% |
| Mullet (tainha) | +47.3% | −7.5% | +36.3% |
| Condensed milk (Leite condensado) | +40.1% | −3.2% | +35.6% |
| Yam (Inhame) | +26.3% | +7.1% | +35.3% |
| Sausage (Salsicha) | +37.0% | −1.3% | +35.2% |
| Pasta (Macarrão) | +37.6% | −2.8% | +33.7% |
| Passion fruit (Maracujá) | +36.4% | −2.1% | +33.5% |
| Mutton (Carne de carneiro) | +23.3% | +8.3% | +33.5% |
| Ham (Presunto) | +28.8% | +3.3% | +33.1% |
| Tilapia (tilápia) | +20.2% | +8.8% | +30.8% |
| Computer (Computador) | +21.3% | +7.2% | +30.0% |
| Bicycle (Bicicleta) | +35.2% | −4.4% | +29.3% |
| Washing powder (Sabão em pó) | +31.1% | −1.4% | +29.3% |
| Cornmeal (Fubá de milho) | +48.4% | −13.2% | +28.8% |
| Tambaqui (river fish) (tambaqui) | +18.7% | +7.3% | +27.4% |
| Refrigerator (Refrigerador) | +42.6% | −10.7% | +27.3% |
| Fan (Ventilador) | +25.5% | −0.3% | +25.1% |
| Cornflakes (Flocos de milho) | +17.7% | +6.3% | +25.1% |
| Washing machine (Máquina de lavar) | +30.2% | −4.8% | +24.0% |
| Mortadella (Mortadela) | +23.9% | −0.2% | +23.7% |
| Apple banana (Banana maçã) | +28.2% | −3.7% | +23.5% |
| Cassava flour (Farinha de mandioca) | +18.5% | +4.2% | +23.5% |
| Toys (Brinquedo) | +16.0% | +6.1% | +23.1% |
| Bar soap (Sabão em barra) | +29.3% | −5.4% | +22.3% |
| Salami (Salame) | +34.4% | −9.1% | +22.2% |
| Cooker (Fogão) | +29.9% | −6.3% | +21.7% |
| Guava (Goiaba) | +11.1% | +9.2% | +21.3% |
| Salmon (salmão) | +14.5% | +4.7% | +19.9% |
| Croaker (corvina) | +9.2% | +7.4% | +17.3% |
| Sardine (sardinha) | +10.2% | +3.5% | +14.1% |
| Used car (Automóvel usado) | +22.8% | −8.3% | +12.6% |
| Hake (merluza) | +17.2% | −4.4% | +12.0% |
| Spanish mackerel (serra) | +6.0% | +1.4% | +7.5% |
| Weakfish (pescada) | +6.5% | +0.8% | +7.4% |
| Shrimp (Camarão) | +3.5% | +2.5% | +6.1% |
| Dorado (dourada) | +4.3% | +0.4% | +4.7% |
| Television (Televisor) | +16.2% | −10.8% | +3.7% |
| Tomato (Tomate) | +6.3% | −2.8% | +3.3% |
| Fruit paste (Doce de frutas em pasta) | +32.9% | −22.3% | +3.3% |
| Mobile phone (Celular) | +7.9% | −10.8% | −3.8% |
| Navel orange (Laranja baía) | +16.6% | −21.8% | −8.8% |
| Avocado (Abacate) | −21.8% | −26.9% | −42.8% |
No item found.
Soybean oil appears as "cheaper under Lula" (−14.2%). True — and it still costs 135% more than in 2019. Rice fell 1.9% and remains 47.6% above. A fall after a surge does not give the price back: it gives back a fraction of it. That is why the chart improves while the feeling at the checkout does not follow.
Calculation: cumulative price level = ((1 + first-window change) × (1 + second-window change) − 1). Variations taken from the "Item by item" section of mercadodamentira.com.br (Sep 2026), which cites IPCA/IBGE. When chaining consecutive periods, indices multiply — they do not add.
The site's comparison table puts "14%+" in the previous government's column and 5.4% in the current one. But 14.9% is neither how the previous government started nor how it ended: it was the height of the pandemic, in Q1 2021.
The site's table puts the worst figure ever recorded on one side and the best on the other, as if they were each government's bottom line.
The previous government inherited 12.7% (Q1 2019) and handed over 7.9% (Q4 2022): a 4.8-point fall, with the pandemic in the middle.
The current government inherited 7.9% and reached 5.4% (Jun 2026): a 2.5-point fall — a real result and the best on record, but achieved from an inheritance already falling.
The 14.9% belongs to Q1 2021 — a lockdown quarter, not a government's balance sheet.
The 5.4% is true and is the lowest in the series. What is false is the contrast: using the pandemic peak as "the opponent's number" charges a global health shock to a government's account.
Sources: IBGE/PNAD Contínua quarterly — Q1 2019 (12.7%), Q4 2019 (11.0%), Q1 2021 (14.9%, the maximum of the series begun in 2012), Q4 2022 (7.9%), Q4 2023 (7.4%), Q4 2024 (6.2%) and the quarter ending June 2026 (5.4%).
We took the table they call "the comparison that says it all" and checked every row. Three of the six hold up without reservation — and we say so plainly. The other three depend on context that was left out.
Both figures match the IPCA. What the table does not say is that the first window contains the pandemic, the logistics collapse and the war in Ukraine, and ends at the all-time record of the global food index. Beyond that, today's price is the result of both windows combined: food rose in each of them.
It compares the series peak (14.9% in Q1 2021, the height of lockdowns) with the current value. The previous government inherited 12.7% and handed over 7.9%; the current one inherited 7.9% and reached 5.4%. The 5.4% is real and is the lowest on record — it is the 14.9% peak that is nobody's bottom line.
Real income did fall until 2021 and recovered afterwards — it is now at its highest on record (R$ 3,652 in the quarter to Jan 2026). But the fall coincides with the destruction of jobs during the pandemic, and the rise starts from a depressed base. Part of the recovery is ground regained, not new ground.
This checks out. The income tax brackets were not adjusted between 2019 and 2022, and Law 15,270/2025 raised the exemption to those earning up to R$ 5,000, in force since January 2026, benefiting roughly 15 million people. An honest caveat: the bracket freeze began in 2015, before the previous government.
The figures are correct. The comparison is nominal, but in this case the real gain exists too: Law 14,663/2023 restored the valorisation policy (inflation plus GDP growth from two years earlier), and the 2026 adjustment delivered a gain above inflation.
This is the same valorisation policy measured as cumulative real gain. A difference of method, not of external context: here the comparison measures a policy choice, which is exactly what a comparison between governments ought to measure.
The campaign material does not fabricate numbers — it selects the yardstick. Where the comparison measures a policy choice (income tax, minimum wage), it is legitimate and we confirm it. Where it measures a global cycle (food, unemployment, income), attributing the result to the government is the error.
Sources: IBGE (IPCA Table 7060, PNAD Contínua); Law 15,270/2025 (income tax exemption up to R$ 5,000, in force Jan 2026); Law 14,663/2023 (minimum wage valorisation policy); Federal Senate and Ministry of Finance.
Fairness first: the card on the original site says, in plain words, "proposal under debate in Congress". The problem is not the card's text — it is where it was placed: inside a section titled "What Lula has done", next to measures that really are already in force.
The card sits between the income tax exemption (law in force), the debt renegotiation programme and the fall in poverty. A quick read — which is how almost everyone reads a website — registers all of it as delivered.
Constitutional amendment 221/2019 (with 8/2025 attached) genuinely advanced in 2026 and is closer than ever. But it needs 49 votes in two rounds in the Senate, and the floor vote still has no date, with the opposition filibustering.
Until that happens, the 6x1 shift remains legal and in force for everyone working under it today.
A promise in progress presented in place of a delivery. The advance is real and recent — and selling the future as the present is exactly what erodes trust when the vote stalls.
Sources: Federal Senate — amendment 221/2019 (committee approval on 2 Sep 2026 and referral to the floor); Chamber of Deputies — approval in two rounds on 27 May 2026; Agência Brasil, September 2026. Status verified on September 9, 2026.
One story circulating online says IBGE — Brazil's national statistics office — is falsifying the numbers. Another, from the campaign, says questioning IBGE is an attack on democracy. Both are simplifications, and both get in the way of understanding what is actually happening.
There is no evidence whatsoever of manipulation of the IPCA (consumer price index) or the PNAD (labour force survey). Both are surveys with public methodology, open microdata, an auditable sample and career civil servants running them. Any researcher can recompute the indices from the microdata — and universities, banks and independent institutes do exactly that routinely, arriving at the same results.
The 2025 re-weighting of the PNAD, done to incorporate the 2022 Census, is a standard technical procedure, announced in advance and applied retroactively across the whole series — including the previous government's years. It creates no artificial improvement: it recalibrates past and present with the same ruler.
And the IPCA weights still come from the previous household budget survey: the update only takes effect from 2027. In other words, the index used in this comparison was not altered by this government.
On 19 January 2026, Rebeca Palis, the coordinator responsible for calculating GDP, was dismissed. At least three members of her team gave up their positions in solidarity.
In February and March 2026, the public prosecutor attached to the federal audit court requested the removal of IBGE's president, Márcio Pochmann, citing the risk of political use of GDP data in an election year and concern over changes to collection and processing methodologies.
None of this shows that any figure was falsified. It shows that the safeguards which make falsification difficult have become more fragile — and that is a legitimate reason for vigilance, not for panic.
Accusing IBGE of fraud is unfair to the people who produce the data and distracts from the real problem. The data is reliable; it is the yardstick applied to it in the campaign material that is chosen. At the same time, the institute's governance crisis is real and deserves scrutiny — not least because the best defence of the numbers is the independence of those who calculate them.
Sources: IBGE — technical note on the 2025 PNAD re-weighting and post-2022-Census population projections; IBGE/POF on the update of IPCA weights; Correio Braziliense and Gazeta do Povo (March 2026) on the prosecutor's filing at the audit court and the dismissals in the national accounts directorate.
A fact-checking site that only ever finds fault on the other side is not fact-checking, it is propaganda by another name. So let us be explicit about what checks out.
The improvement in the labour market is real and the slowdown in prices is real. What is not real is the causal link the campaign builds between the two, nor the idea that food prices went back to what they were. You can acknowledge the result without buying the explanation.
Sources: IBGE/PNAD Contínua (unemployment, informality, underutilisation and real earnings, 2026 releases); Law 15,270/2025; Law 14,663/2023; FAO — Food Price Index, August 2026; and the product table published on mercadodamentira.com.br itself.
The table was extracted from the original site's own “Item by item” section in September 2026. No variation was altered. We only removed 4 duplicate labels (the same IPCA item appeared under a short and a full name), leaving 112 products. The only new column is the cumulative one.
A copy of the site under review was saved to the Internet Archive on 9 September 2026. If they edit it or take the page down, the version we audited stays public and verifiable — the link is in the sources below.
To find where a price stands today relative to Jan 2019, two consecutive periods multiply: (1+a)×(1+b)−1. Adding the two variations would give a wrong number.
For unemployment and income we used the value of the quarter each government took office and the quarter it handed over — rather than the worst and best points of the series.
The FAO food index works as a control: if the same movement appears worldwide, it cannot be credited to or charged against a Brazilian government.
Three of the six rows in the original comparison hold up. They are marked as correct, each with its legal source.
Cyclical indicators change. Every block carries its verification date, and the page states the overall last update.
A bent yardstick travels fast because it is simple. Context travels slowly because it needs explaining. If this check helped you understand the number, it will help someone else too.
The text comes pre-filled with the key figure. Write your own if you prefer — the link is the same.
I built this site on my own, with no ties to any party, campaign, news outlet or public body. The motivation was simple: the numbers in the original material were true, and yet the conclusion did not hold. That is a problem of method, and method can be demonstrated.
All the code and the dataset are open. If you find a mistake of mine, open an issue in the repository — the correction is published as plainly as the original claim.