AnalysisVerified on September 9, 2026

What the campaign gets right — and what nobody is telling you.

Honest in both directions

What the campaign gets right — and what nobody is telling you.

A fact-checking site that only ever finds fault on the other side is not fact-checking, it is propaganda by another name. So let us be explicit about what checks out.

✓ What checks out

5.4% is the lowest unemployment on recordThe record in the PNAD series, which began in 2012, is real. There is no trick in the number itself.

Informal work is falling37.5% in the quarter to Jan 2026, the lowest since July 2020. The counter-argument that 'the jobs are all informal' does not hold up in the data.

Average income is at its highest on recordR$ 3,652 in usual real earnings, up 5.4% in a year. It is genuinely a record.

The R$ 5,000 income tax exemption is in forceLaw 15,270/2025, applied to payroll since 1 January 2026, benefiting roughly 15 million people.

The minimum wage gained in real termsThe valorisation policy was restored by Law 14,663/2023 and the 2026 minimum (R$ 1,621) rose above inflation.

Labour underutilisation fell sharply13.8% in the quarter to April 2026, against more than 30% at the height of the pandemic. The labour market improvement is broad, not an artefact of definition.

! What both sides leave out

Prices did not come back, they just stopped running109 of the 112 items in their own table are still pricier than in January 2019. Low inflation means prices rose slowly — not that they came down.

Coffee is up 156% since 2019And it rose 48.7% in the current window, by the site's own figures. Some everyday items still weigh far more on the household budget.

The global tide has turned againThe FAO food index reached 133.3 points in August 2026, the highest since late 2022. The tailwind of 2023-2024 is not permanent.

The global cycle explains both sidesThe same logic that absolves this government of the 2021-2022 surge absolves the previous one. Anyone using the context argument has to apply it in both directions.

The point

The improvement in the labour market is real and the slowdown in prices is real. What is not real is the causal link the campaign builds between the two, nor the idea that food prices went back to what they were. You can acknowledge the result without buying the explanation.

Sources: IBGE/PNAD Contínua (unemployment, informality, underutilisation and real earnings, 2026 releases); Law 15,270/2025; Law 14,663/2023; FAO — Food Price Index, August 2026; and the product table published on mercadodamentira.com.br itself.

Other fact-checks

MisleadingUnemployment fell from over 14% to 5.4% because of the current government.Lacks contextFood prices rose 4x more under the previous government than the current one.Lacks contextDozens of products became cheaper under the current government.MisleadingEnding the 6x1 work shift is among the current government's delivered policies.FalseIBGE is falsifying employment and inflation data.AnalysisTheir comparison table, audited.

This calculation needs to travel.

A bent yardstick travels fast because it is simple. Context travels slowly because it needs explaining. If this check helped you understand the number, it will help someone else too.

WhatsApp Post on X

The text comes pre-filled with the key figure. Write your own if you prefer — the link is the same.